The 2016 General Election campaign is underway, and predictions vary widely about which parties will form the next government. Polling companies release opinion polls weekly, and political analysts are working continuously to predict the outcome. Over the past few weeks, they have also attempted to apply national opinion poll results to each local constituency.
However, national opinion polls tend to ignore local dynamics that can influence voting behaviour in individual constituencies. Voters may not support a particular party, but they may still vote for its candidate if that candidate is perceived to have worked hard for the local community. These dynamics can come into play during an election, and pollsters can miss many of them.
One alternative approach is to examine the odds offered by bookmakers such as Paddy Power. Although the bookmaker does not disclose how it calculates its odds, its odds for the Wexford constituency appear to align with predictions from internal party polls. The odds likely combine local poll results, national poll results, and betting activity.
If these odds are correct, the 2016 General Election result would be as follows:
- Fine Gael: 61 seats (38.6%).
- Fianna Fáil: 33 seats (20.8%).
- Sinn Féin: 26 seats (16.5%).
- Independents: 13 seats (8.2%).
- Labour: 12 seats (7.6%).
- AAA/PBP: 4 seats (2.5%).
- Social Democrats: 3 seats (1.9%).
- Renua: 3 seats (1.9%).
- Green Party: 1 seat (0.6%).
- United Left: 1 seat (0.6%).
Winners and Losers
The Oireachtas reduced the number of sitting TDs from 166 to 158 in 2012, so the following changes are based on the percentage of seats won:
- Fine Gael’s seat share will drop by 7.1% to 38.6%.
- Fianna Fáil will increase its seat share by 8.8%, from 12% to 20.8%.
- Sinn Féin will increase its seat share by 8.1%, from 8.4% to 16.5%.
- Labour’s seat share will drop by 15.3%, from 22.9% to 7.6%.
Both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin will gain seats:
- Sinn Féin: +48.7%.
- Fianna Fáil: +42.3%.
- Fine Gael: -15.5%.
- Labour: -66.8%.
If the bookmakers are correct, Labour will have its worst General Election since 1987.
Coalitions
A party needs 79 of 158 seats to form a majority. The possible coalitions stand as follows:
- Fine Gael and Labour: 73 seats. Six seats short of a majority.
- Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin: 59 seats. 20 seats short.
- Fine Gael, Labour, and Renua: 76 seats. Three seats short.
- Fine Gael, Labour, and the Social Democrats: 76 seats. Three seats short.
- Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil: 94 seats. More than enough to form a stable government.
- Sinn Féin, AAA, PBP, United Left, and the Social Democrats: 34 seats.
- Fine Gael, Labour, Renua, and three independent candidates: 79.
- Fine Gael, Labour, Renua, and the Social Democrats: 79.
Most of the coalition possibilities listed above do not reach the 79-seat mark required for a majority. This suggests that a rainbow coalition of Fine Gael, Labour, either Renua or the Social Democrats, and several independents is the most likely outcome. A left-wing-led government appears unlikely.
Warning
These are the odds, not the actual results. In many constituencies, the figures for the last two seats are relatively close. Those seats are difficult to predict because transfers from eliminated candidates can produce surprises. In Wexford, for example, bookmakers expect Fine Gael’s Michael D’Arcy to take the last seat. However, Sinn Féin’s Johnny Mythen is close behind and may be able to secure it if transfers from other left-wing candidates are favourable enough.